What’s going on on the natural gas market? Prices, trends and events in Q3 2023
September 2023 was a month full of events on the Polish gas market. We are approaching the key autumn-winter period of the year. This is statistically the most expensive season due to the increased demand for gas for heating purposes.
One of the main events on the gas market in September was the threat of a strike by employees of the LNG sector in Australia (concerning Chevron), which, if production was completely suspended, could affect approximately 7% of the global LNG gas supply (liquefied natural gas). ). Fortunately for customers, the LNG loading schedule was not disrupted. Ultimately, the strike ended after Chevron and Offshore Alliance accepted new proposals regarding employment conditions. These events, although they did not directly concern the Polish market, significantly contributed to price volatility on the Dutch TTF exchange, which is a reference point for European countries. Prices ranged from EUR 47.65/MWh to EUR 53.10/MWh, which means a volatility of 11%. In summary, the Chevron workers' strike had a potential impact on global LNG supply and gas prices, but ultimately did not significantly impact the market due to the quick resolution of the conflict.
About energy and gas prices for Employers of Pomerania
On September 20, 2023, the "Prices of electricity and natural gas" workshops were held, organized by Employers of Pomerania based in Gdańsk, during which, together with the MGS LAW Legal Advisors' Office, we had the pleasure of presenting recommendations on price security to the numerous representatives of Pomeranian companies. media for the coming years.
At the meeting, we analyzed current and forecast market conditions, assessed their impact on future energy and gas bills, and discussed changes in law following amendments to the energy law.
Through the eye of an expert. About the purchase of electricity for 2024
Many entrepreneurs take advantage of the current, relatively good market situation and have already started contracting electricity for 2024. Unlike in previous years, some companies have even completed it and are already making purchases for 2025. Companies for which the cost of energy purchase has a significant share in the entire cost structure more and more often base their decisions on individualized purchasing strategies tailored to the specificity of their operations, taking into account both current market conditions and scenarios in the event of their significant change. These strategies are the basis for the selection of the energy contracting model, they also allow for the implementation of investment or purchasing activities in the field of green energy, which is gaining in importance.
From mid-January 2023, the energy exchange prices for 2024 oscillate in the range of PLN 700-850/MWh. It can be said that this is quite a promotion, considering that in the previous six months these prices generally did not go below PLN 1000/MWh, and at the peak they even reached PLN 1800/MWh. Current prices for companies are approx. PLN 100-200/MWh higher than the exchange prices (this value includes the costs incurred by sellers related to profiling and balancing customers, the so-called "colors", excise duty, service costs, but also the accompanying risks of price changes and sellers margin of course).