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The beginning of 2025 brings significant changes to the energy and gas market. After the changing weather conditions in recent months and the dynamic fluctuations in raw material prices, the energy sector is adapting to new realities. Energy prices on the Polish Power Exchange have fallen, and the situation in the industry remains a challenge. At the same time, the European Union is implementing another package of sanctions against Russia, which may affect the stability of raw material supplies.
In this article we will take a closer look at key events and their potential consequences for energy consumers in Poland and Europe.
- Decreases in energy and gas prices on the Polish Power Exchange. After a difficult November, dominated by unfavourable weather conditions (so-called dunkelflaute) limiting the production of energy from the sun and wind, December brought positive changes. High winds and rising temperatures reduced the demand for raw materials for heating and energy production in traditional sources. As a result, the prices of gas, CO2 emission allowances and energy on the forward and SPOT markets fell.
- Bad readings for the manufacturing sector. The eurozone saw a deepening recession in the manufacturing sector in December 2024, with the PMI remaining at a low of 45.2, while the services sector saw an improvement, with the PMI rising to 51.4. German manufacturing continues to struggle, with the PMI falling to 42.5. The overall composite PMI for the eurozone rose to 49.5, but remains below the threshold indicating economic growth.
- 15th package of sanctions against Russia. On 16 December, the European Union formally adopted another package of sanctions against Russia. The so-called blacklist included more people and companies (including from China) who helped Russia circumvent EU restrictions and cooperated in the construction of military drones used in the war against Ukraine. Sanctions also covered 52 Russian ships from the so-called shadow fleet, which circumvents EU restrictions on oil.
- Higher distribution tariffs for 2025. The President of the Energy Regulatory Office approved tariffs for the five largest distribution companies. As a result, the average annual rates for distribution for households (G group) in 2025 will remain unchanged. For the remaining tariff groups, the average increase for all distributors will be around 2.1%. The largest price increase will affect customers from the Energa Operator area (+3.7%), while Stoen customers will not feel any increases.
- New PSG distribution tariff for 2025. The President of URE approved a new tariff for the distribution of gas fuels for Polska Spółka Gazownictwa. From January 1, 2025, for customers covered by the PSG tariff and the PGNiG OD tariff (approved in June this year), as well as unfrozen subscription fee rates, in relation to those applied in the second half of 2024, the fees for the most popular tariff groups will increase from approximately PLN 2.60 to less than PLN 30 per month.
- Preliminary results of the capacity market auction. This year's capacity market auction for the 2029 delivery year took place on December 12, and preliminary results were published by PSE on December 17. The data show that the largest share in this year's auction went to battery energy storage, which contracted approximately 2.5 GW of capacity. This means an increase of almost 0.8 GW compared to last year, despite the reduction of the corrective availability factor for energy storage to 61.3% (compared to approximately 95% in previous years).
Detailed information about the energy and gas market is presented in the monthly Enfree Market Report.
