31.10.2024

US presidential election, or the mood on European energy and gas markets

Tags

cena
Duża firma
Energetyka
energia
energia elektryczna
Oszczędność
prąd
przedsiębiorstwa
rentowność

Author

Kamil Rakowski

Energy Market Analyst

In October 2024, the European energy and gas market is at a key juncture, which gains additional context in connection with the upcoming presidential elections in the United States.

The outcome of the US elections will have a significant impact on global energy policy, especially in Europe, which is grappling with the challenges of ensuring energy security after the crisis related to the war in Ukraine and global tensions. Changes in US climate policy, regulations on natural gas and renewable energy sources may affect the EU's energy strategy and the shaping of the gas market, which in the next few years will affect energy prices, infrastructure investments and the relationship between Europe and the US.

Below we present the most important events affecting energy and gas prices in October 2024.

  • US presidential election. The upcoming US presidential election has a negative impact on market sentiment. If Donald Trump wins, as he is leading in polls, negative scenarios are possible regarding armed conflicts and US commodity exports from the perspective of prices in the European Union.
  • Norwegian gas platform failure. Norwegian company Equinor announced on Tuesday, October 22, that it had suspended production from its Sleipner B gas platform in the North Sea due to a smoke alarm at the facility. The incident reduced gas supply, which in turn raised concerns about the availability of the raw material and contributed directly to gas price increases in the EU and Poland.
  • Low demand for energy and gas. Electricity demand in Poland is at a very low level. The latest readings were the worst demand result for October since the beginning of measurements. This, combined with high generation from renewable energy sources, including wind and photovoltaic sources, reduces the need to use conventional energy sources. Reduced demand for natural gas is also observed in Europe. This is the result of a weakened economy, especially on the industrial side (page 22), very large stocks of this raw material (pages 17-18) and relatively high temperatures.
  • New capacity fee rate. The President of URE published the capacity fee rate for 2025. The rate for industrial customers and large businesses will be PLN 141.20/MWh, which is an increase of PLN 15/MWh compared to the rate in force this year (PLN 126.73/MWh).
  • EU members are pushing for tougher sanctions against Russia. Some member states are pushing for a ban on Russian LNG imports to Europe as part of the next sanctions package. Such actions are aimed at reducing dependence on Russian supplies. The latest 14th sanctions package concerns only a ban on the re-export of Russian LNG via EU infrastructure.
  • Armed conflicts. Ongoing armed conflicts, particularly in the Middle East, continue to destabilize commodity supply chains. Recent Iran-Israel activity, starting with the October 1 attack, has destabilized oil and gas prices, which continue to the date of this report update. Further tensions in the region could lead to further unforeseen price increases on global markets.

Detailed information about the energy and gas market is presented in the monthly Enfree Market Report. Please contact us.

See also

More news

14.01.2025

Electricity market in 2024. Trends, changes and development of the sector

Price dynamics. Geopolitical events and the previous energy crisis had a key impact on price formation in the first half of 2024. January and February were characterized by dynamic declines, resulting from the gradual exit from the period of high prices resulting from the energy crisis. As a result, the lowest price levels were recorded for many futures market products in the middle of the second month of 2024.

Read more

18.12.2024

Finance in the energy sector, or changes in energy fees for companies in 2025

Below we present the key aspects of the changes that will apply from January 2025.

Read more

29.11.2024

Dunkelflaute and other factors shaping prices in Europe at the end of 2024

On the one hand, we struggled with the difficulties of ensuring the stability of supplies, on the other – new development prospects in the area of ​​renewable energy sources and technological innovations appeared on the horizon. In this article, we will look at the most important events that shaped this period in the energy and gas market.

Below we present the most important events affecting energy and gas prices in November 2024.

Read more