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June 2025 brought a series of events that could significantly impact the future of the energy market in Central and Eastern Europe. From record-breaking renewable energy production in Poland and a historic decline in the share of coal in the country's energy mix, to new gas agreements with Ukraine and the political impasse in the European Union regarding the embargo on fuels from Russia, this month highlighted both progress in the energy transition and the continuing geopolitical and infrastructural challenges.
In this article, we look at the most important facts, analyze their consequences and indicate possible scenarios for the development of the situation.
- Ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Tensions in the Middle East escalated sharply on June 12th. Israel launched a series of attacks on military and industrial targets in Iran, including those strategically important to its nuclear program. In response, Iran retaliated. After 12 days of mutual firefights, and following the United States' intervention, a ceasefire agreement was reached. Both sides declared their readiness to de-escalate, although the situation remains volatile.
- Increased gas transit from Poland to Ukraine. Poland and Ukraine have signed a new agreement to increase natural gas transmission. Gaz-System announced that the firm capacity of the interconnector will be increased to 53 GWh/h and maintained at this level until September 2026. The previous arrangements were valid only until the end of June.
- Veto against the ban on fuel imports from Russia. The European Union's plans to introduce a full ban on fuel imports from Russia have encountered opposition from Slovakia and Hungary. Bratislava is demanding a transition period and guaranteed supplies, arguing that an immediate embargo would threaten the country's energy security. Budapest has expressed a similar position. As a result, a Community agreement on new sanctions has not been reached.
- Report on the April blackout in Spain. Spanish authorities have published a report on the electricity outage that occurred in April and affected nearly 50 million customers. The document indicates that the blackout was not the result of a cyberattack or deliberate sabotage. The cause of the incident was procedural errors and improper actions by the grid operator in a situation of system overload. The government announced the implementation of corrective measures and a review of crisis management procedures.
- Record-breaking renewable energy sources amid record-low demand in Poland. In June 2025, the average demand in the Polish power system fell to 16,529 MW – the lowest level since records began in 2016. At the same time, historic records were reached for renewable energy production. Photovoltaic generation was almost twice as high as the average for that month in recent years, and wind energy reached its highest June figure on record. Furthermore, April data show that coal's share of electricity production in Poland fell below 50% for the first time, reaching 47%. This is a symbolic moment for the transformation of the country's energy mix.
Detailed information about the energy and gas market is presented in the monthly Enfree Market Report.
