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The year 2024 brought significant changes to the electricity market in Poland. Price drops at the beginning of the year, the reform of the Balancing Market and the dynamic development of renewable energy sources influenced the market shape.
Price dynamics. Geopolitical events and the previous energy crisis had a key impact on price formation in the first half of 2024. January and February were characterized by dynamic declines, resulting from the gradual exit from the period of high prices resulting from the energy crisis. As a result, the lowest price levels were recorded for many futures market products in the middle of the second month of 2024.
A similar trend was observed on the Day-Ahead Market (DAN), a market where energy is traded one day in advance for each hour of the day. However, unlike the forward market, the key event that influenced prices was the introduction of the second stage of the Balancing Market (RB) reform on 14 June. This market, managed by Polskie Sieci Elektroenergetyczne (PSE), is used to balance energy demand and supply, i.e. to settle the differences between contracted and actually consumed or produced energy.
The aim of the reform was to adjust energy pricing on the RB to market levels, which was to encourage market participants to adjust energy production and consumption more flexibly. The changes introduced shortened settlement periods from one hour to 15 minutes, which allowed for more accurate determination of the value of energy in real time. The effect of the reform was an increase in prices on the Balancing Market, which translated into higher average prices on the SPOT market.
Price fluctuations between the Day-Ahead Market and the Balancing Market. The largest differences between the Day-Ahead Market and the Balancing Market were recorded in June and July, i.e. in the period immediately after the introduction of the reform. These were the months with the largest annual differences in average monthly energy prices. Interestingly, in each of the 12 months of 2024, the average price on the Day-Ahead Market was higher than on the Balancing Market – such a situation has not occurred since 2016.
The year of renewable energy sources. The most up-to-date data from the Energy Market Agency (ARE) indicate that by November 2024, the total installed capacity in the Polish power system had increased by 6,548.8 MW, which means an increase of almost 10% compared to the previous year. Compared to the value from two years ago, the increase was over 20%, reaching 12,293 MW.
The greatest development was recorded in the renewable energy sources (RES) segment, i.e. in power plants powered by wind, water, solar and biomass sources. The installed capacity in these sources increased by over 17% compared to 2023, and in a two-year perspective it increased by as much as 50%. The largest increase concerned photovoltaics (PV) - compared to the previous year, the installed capacity increased by over 25%, and in relation to 2022 by as much as 73%.
Analyzing the data on energy production, it can be seen that the average values of generation from wind and sun were high in every month of 2024. In the case of wind energy - the highest values in the history of Polish energy were recorded in six months.
Even better results were achieved by energy production from solar sources. In each month of 2024, average energy generation from photovoltaics was higher than in the same periods of previous years. This increase was due to both the development of PV infrastructure and favorable weather conditions.
Thanks to dynamic changes in the structure of generation and the reform of the Balancing Market, the Polish energy sector is becoming more flexible and adapted to the challenges of modern energy. In the coming years, we can expect a further increase in the share of renewable energy sources and the development of mechanisms that improve the stability and predictability of prices on the market.
Detailed information about the energy and gas market is presented in the monthly Enfree Market Report.
