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November 2024 was another month full of dynamic changes and challenges on the energy and gas market. In the context of growing geopolitical uncertainty and ongoing energy transformations, events during this period had a key impact on shaping the prices and supplies of energy resources.
On the one hand, we struggled with the difficulties of ensuring the stability of supplies, on the other – new development prospects in the area of renewable energy sources and technological innovations appeared on the horizon. In this article, we will look at the most important events that shaped this period in the energy and gas market.
Below we present the most important events affecting energy and gas prices in November 2024.
- Dunkelflaute in Europe. In the first half of November (4-14), most European countries struggled with the so-called "Dunkelflaute", a phenomenon characterized by the simultaneous occurrence of low wind and high cloud cover. This caused a significant reduction in energy production from wind and photovoltaic sources, forcing European countries to increase the use of fossil fuels in the energy mix. In Poland, the share of renewable energy sources in energy production in this period was only 10%, where it had been at an average level of 30% so far. In order to maintain supplies to all recipients, the Polish Power Grids (PSE) were forced to use the capacity market, calling on selected associated entities to reduce their consumption.
- The increase in the price of energy on the SPOT market in Europe. Recently, Poland, together with Ireland and Italy, has regularly been among the three countries with the most expensive energy in Europe. In November, the situation changed, especially in the Balkans, where price levels clearly exceeded the European average and are at the level of 170 EUR/MWh. Currently, the price of energy on the SPOT market in Poland is close to the average for the whole of Europe and ranks 16th out of 30 countries analyzed, which indicates price stabilization compared to other countries.
- Russia has suspended gas deliveries to Austria. On November 13, 2024, the Austrian company OMV announced that it had won an arbitration case against Gazprom. The court ordered Gazprom to pay compensation, and OMV decided to recover the debt by suspending payments for current gas deliveries. This caused an immediate reaction from Gazprom, and on November 16, Russia suspended gas deliveries to Austria, despite the current contract. At the same time, the volume that the Russian company sent through the gas pipeline remains unchanged compared to November 15. It is likely that another recipient in Europe was found that "took over" the volume planned for OMV.
- Increased demand for gas. According to preliminary data for the first three weeks of November, demand for the raw material was almost 20% higher than in the same period a year earlier. This is the result of the need to increase the share of energy production from gas throughout Europe due to Dunkelflaute (low generation of renewable energy sources).
- Early decline in gas storage capacity. The need to use reserves appeared in 2024 as early as week 44. This is four weeks earlier than the statistical norm. The current level of storage capacity is lower than the average of the last 5 years.
- Increase in CO2 emission allowance prices. Rising gas prices naturally increased the share of energy and heat generation from coal sources. This was a direct cause of the increase in the cost of CO2 emissions due to increased demand.
Detailed information about the energy and gas market is presented in the monthly Enfree Market Report.