Gas Geopolitics: The End of Transit Through Ukraine and a New Role for the US

The global energy market is facing new challenges. The United States is radically changing its climate and energy policy, withdrawing from pro-ecological regulations and intensifying LNG exports. At the same time, Europe is struggling with the consequences of the suspension of Russian gas transit through Ukraine, which is leading to higher prices and tensions on the market.

In the face of these changes, American gas is increasingly finding its way to the Old Continent, changing the balance of power in global energy. Is this the beginning of a new era of raw material supplies?

• Trump’s energy policy. Donald Trump, shortly after taking office, lifted the moratorium on issuing new U.S. export licenses for LNG. The goal of these moves is to increase U.S. revenues and lower commodity prices, which is intended to put pressure on Russia, whose economy is largely based on oil and gas exports.
• The US is withdrawing from climate policy. The US president has declared an energy emergency, announcing the end of the Green New Deal and the withdrawal of regulations supporting the development of electric vehicles. The United States has officially informed the UN of its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, a 2015 international treaty aimed at limiting global temperature increase to 1.5°C.
• End of gas transit through Ukraine. At the beginning of 2025, agreements on the transmission of Russian gas through Ukraine to Europe were terminated. The suspension of transit limited the availability of the raw material in winter, which led to an increase in prices and faster depletion of reserves. A gap estimated at 14-18 bcm appeared on the European market, which requires imports from other directions or increased use of storage facilities.
• Completion of the expansion of the LNG Terminal. As part of the expansion of the LNG Terminal in Świnoujście, a third tank for liquefied gas with a capacity of 180,000 m3 was built, which corresponds to approximately 2 GWh. Additionally, during the investment, a new quay was built, enabling the mooring, parking, loading and unloading of smaller LNG tankers. This infrastructure also allows for the transhipment of gas between tankers and the bunkering of units, such as tugboats, using LNG as fuel.
• American LNG is headed to Europe. Tankers carrying liquefied natural gas that were initially supposed to reach Asia are increasingly changing course to Europe. This decision is due to lower than expected storage levels, the suspension of Russian gas transit through Ukraine and more attractive prices on European exchanges. According to ICIS data, in January at least seven LNG ships leaving terminals in the US turned around in the South Atlantic and took a new course to Europe.
• Eurozone manufacturing sector still in recession. January PMI data shows continued recession in eurozone manufacturing, despite a slight improvement in the index to 46.1, with industry still feeling the effects of sanctions on Russia and weakening demand. In Germany, the situation remains difficult, although the manufacturing PMI rose to 44.1. The services sector is showing signs of recovery, with the overall PMI Composite reaching 50.2, signalling a slight improvement in the economic situation.

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