About the purchase of natural gas based on offers indexed with the forward market prices



Arkadiusz Somnicki

Member of the Board

How will the high prices of natural gas affect the current market by changing the market shares of sellers and the products they offer? Verification of the strengths and weaknesses of individual market participants is already taking place, and one of the main driving forces accelerating change are entrepreneurs looking for cheaper alternatives to purchase blue fuel. Is a change of gas supplier, or maybe its purchase based on offers indexed with forward market prices, a chance to lower the bill?

According to the data of the Energy Regulatory Office, since the beginning of the liberalization of the gas market, the gas supplier has been changed by 281 thousand. with approx. 6.5 million of all recipients (as of Q3 2021), of which only 5% were industrial recipients (tariff groups with markings from W5 to W10). The PGNiG Group is the undisputed leader in gas sales in Poland, with a market share of approximately 85% in 2020. We will soon find out how the current situation will affect the new distribution of market shares (according to the ERO data, at the end of 2020 in Poland there were approx. 90 companies actively involved in trading in natural gas, with 185 entities having a license to trade in gaseous fuels. ).

The decision to change the seller is influenced by the level of customer awareness and their motivation to change (nowadays mainly the level of the offered price), as well as the ease of making such a change (no complicated procedures) and the availability of competitive offers on the market.

The prices of gas fuel offered by various sellers often differ by several or even several percent, and a significant increase in price differences has been observed since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. Most sellers set prices based on the current gas exchange quotations, adding excise tax, the cost of the so-called white certificates, margins but also mark-ups, which play an important role in recent months, allowing to secure the commercial risks of sellers. The current gas prices for 2023 listed on the Polish Power Exchange exceed the level of PLN 465 / MWh (updated on 04/25/2022), which means more than fivefold increase in prices over the last year.

Much has been said in the public space about future gas price predictions. Politicians, journalists and other commentators often bet on only one direction of change (expectation of further price increases or a reversal of the trend in a downward direction). A message from experienced analysts is timid, suggesting that in the current geopolitical conditions it is difficult to make an unambiguous forecast of gas prices. However, based on the current market knowledge, it is worth determining the likelihood of further increases or decreases in prices. Such an assessment of the market will become the basis for the preparation of the company's strategy, taking into account purchasing tactics in the event of the materialization of individual price scenarios. It is important that the strategy correlates directly with the products available on the market that determine the possible conditions for purchasing gaseous fuel.

One of the most interesting product solutions available on the market is the purchase of gas products based on offers indexed with the prices of the forward market. Depending on the price changes observed on the market, companies may decide to accelerate or postpone the purchase of individual gas tranches (usually sellers give the opportunity to purchase at least several tranches, while pointing out that the minimum amount of gas purchased should not be less than that indicated in the contract is a percentage of the total volume). The tactic of purchasing smaller amounts of gas over time brings measurable benefits, as long as you have adequate market knowledge to rationally assess the level of current prices and their future changes. It is worth mentioning that it is possible to purchase only one type of product - a band contract but with a different delivery period (month, quarter, year and, which is characteristic for the gas market, also the summer or winter season).

Zobacz również

Więcej aktualności


Through the eye of an expert. About the purchase of electricity for 2024

Many entrepreneurs take advantage of the current, relatively good market situation and have already started contracting electricity for 2024. Unlike in previous years, some companies have even completed it and are already making purchases for 2025. Companies for which the cost of energy purchase has a significant share in the entire cost structure more and more often base their decisions on individualized purchasing strategies tailored to the specificity of their operations, taking into account both current market conditions and scenarios in the event of their significant change. These strategies are the basis for the selection of the energy contracting model, they also allow for the implementation of investment or purchasing activities in the field of green energy, which is gaining in importance.

From mid-January 2023, the energy exchange prices for 2024 oscillate in the range of PLN 700-850/MWh. It can be said that this is quite a promotion, considering that in the previous six months these prices generally did not go below PLN 1000/MWh, and at the peak they even reached PLN 1800/MWh. Current prices for companies are approx. PLN 100-200/MWh higher than the exchange prices (this value includes the costs incurred by sellers related to profiling and balancing customers, the so-called "colors", excise duty, service costs, but also the accompanying risks of price changes and sellers margin of course).

Czytaj dalej


Join Enfree. Your future in the energy market.

The energy market poses more and more challenges to Polish companies. At Enfree, we help to face them - we develop energy purchase strategies for the largest recipients in the country and carry out purchasing processes for them.

If you know energy and would like to work with us, write to us. We are looking for support for our team.

Call us: +48 695 000 950

Czytaj dalej


Why is it not worth waiting with the purchase of energy for 2024?

Loudly in the network about "low", exchange prices of energy listed on the SPOT market in January 2023. (low from the perspective of the prices we faced in 2022). A relatively attractive price level favors entrepreneurs whose energy sales contracts enable the settlement of energy purchases taking into account the current exchange prices (the so-called Day-Ahead Market).

Settlement taking into account exchange prices, both futures market and DAM (SPOT) prices, is an increasingly popular form of settlement of energy sold to large electricity and gas consumers.

Why is it worth not delaying the signing of such an agreement for 2024? Because we gain more than we lose. The main advantage is the ability to react immediately to the market situation. When the time is right, the purchase can be made immediately. In order to take full advantage of this arrangement, it is important to have enough time to catch the price opportunities that occur throughout the year. Therefore, the beginning of the year is a good time to look around the market and choose electricity and gas suppliers for the next year.

Czytaj dalej